The LTML has enjoyed a good degree of parity so far this year. Even so, we’ve reached the point of the season where some teams are separating themselves in good ways and bad. 3 of the games this week were very tight. One was not. We had pitched battles, explosive receivers, and no shortage of Oofs. Let’s get to it.
WEEK 7 RECAPS
Too Many Cooks (5-2) def. Respect the Specks (2-5)
126.32 - 119.54
Back from the pit of despair, Too Many Cooks regain their winning ways in a hard-fought battle with Respect the Specks. The lead story for TMC is, of course, the re-spicing of the meatballs. This week, TMC owner Aaron Preese reached out to Jared Cook and managed to get him back on the team despite his surprise cutting during last week’s bye. Preese gave the following explanation when asked for comment:
“Too Many Cooks original vision was to have two cooks in the kitchen/bench at all times. When Dalvin went down there were many discussions, Zoom calls with my close confidants and we decided 3 cooks in the kitchen were indeed Too Many Cooks. Fans went crazy all over the subreddit making dank memes and saying how we weren’t following what this team is made for: The Cooks. The team is 1-1 without Jared Cook and now 5-0 with him in the kitchen. The results speak for themselves.”
That they did. With a rejuvenation of morale and the return of proven starters Russell Wilson and Darren Waller, TMC made it so even Jameis could eat that ‘W’.
Since we’re heeding team names, let’s give some respect to The Specks. They had a huge bye load featuring star QB Lamar Jackson, Justin Jefferson, and the all-important Kenny Blankenship. In their place. Joe Burrow, AJ Green(!), and Michael Badgley all responded admirably. Hell, even Todd Gurley scored a 2nd touchdown for them when he didn’t really want to. Unfortunately, it was two busts by the boom-or-busts, Jerrick McKinnon and Chase Claypool, that bit the GOGS this week. The former was especially frustrating as it seems 49ers coach Kyle Shannahan did GOGS a big mischief by wanting to give McKinnon an unofficial bye week. At 2-5 their odds for the postseason may be long, but they’re not out. Although this league has its frontrunners, it does seem that any given team each week has a chance for a win.
Hostert With The Mostert (4-3) def. Outdated Sheets (3-4)
163.7- 66.68
Hostert With The Mostert enjoys the week’s only blowout en route to their 3rd straight win as they improve to 4-3. Earlier in the year, injuries and bye weeks resulted in a pretty bare WR cupboard for HOST. This week, the original starters finally returned and the results were gratifying. The three receivers totalled 90 points. Davante Adams led with 44.6 points in what, at the time, I figured to be a lock for the week’s top performance. Kyler Murray would top off the explosive week in a 37 point effort, solidifying his top QB status going into the bye.
Outdated Sheets is a team that lives at the extremes. In 4 out of 7 games, they’ve either had the highest score or the lowest score (1 to 3, respectively). They also do it in memorable ways: Sometimes they’re carried on to victory on a 40 point performance, other times, they stumble to defeat on the absent backs of injured starters. This week was most decidedly the latter. You may remember the well documented starting of the injured and soon-to-be-cut LeVeon Bell from a couple weeks ago. Well take that situation and add an owner who dared to have a social life between Thursday and Sunday. Three of his starters were questionable at the beginning of the week, but turned doubtful and eventually out by the weekend. His support of the adorable future Hart baby was not appreciated by the weird, friendless fantasy gods. And so it was, the triple goose-egg. Michael Thomas, Joe Mixon, and Jamison Crowder, three players who are capable of hanging 30-40 on you any given day, were nil before the games began. As a result, SHTS posted the low score of the season. HOST got to enjoy an easy victory this week, but this is the team where you never know when they’re going to go off. Depends how much owner Zach Pauras stays in his basement.
Knobby Packers (5-2) def. 3 Pete (2-5)
117.42 - 116.38
Knobby Packers always seem to find themselves in the thick of things. They endured the closest match of the season to improve to 5-2 over 3 Pete. KNOB wisely predicted an Aaron Rodgers revenge game against the Texans as well as Alvin Kamara’s return as a true RB1. What they didn’t predict was CeeDee Lamb and AJ Dillon’s practical silence for the week. KNOB’s players were all done after the afternoon games, so all that was left for owner Alex St. Peter to do was wait and hope his 117 points would hold.
3 Pete’s early and afternoon starters were lacking a standout effort until rookie QB Justin Herbert put on a damn impressive show against Jacksonville to the tune of 38.5 points. Herbert’s big day must have been a breath of fresh air for owner Kevin Duong, who has been often burned at the QB position this year. The rookie put 3P into striking range for Sunday night and the final two players of the matchup: WR’s D’Andre Hopkins and DK Metcalf. They needed to produce 30 points between them, a bar they were projected to clear by just three points.
Sunday night was an instant classic of a game for NFL fans, and I’m pleased to say it was the same for LTML fans. The way the game was playing out, Hopkins was doing his part and producing strongly. DK Metcalf, on the other hand, was being completely overshadowed by Tyler Lockett’s career day. Metcalf did save Seattle 6 points when he ran down Bhuda Baker after a pick in what was perhaps the defensive play of the year, but in fantasy all that gets you is a pat on the head. As the end of the 4th quarter drew near, 3P was just 3 points short of KNOB. But then Kyler Murray led a gutsy, 1-minute drive down the field and Zane Gonzalez sent the game into OT with a field goal. Suddenly 3P had 10 more minutes to get 3 points. Hopkins wasn’t used in the Cardinals’ drive, but when Seattle got the ball Metcalf finally got his number called. He caught a pass near the sidelines, evaded a tackler to get loose, and ran it to the house locking down the victory for both Seattle and 3 Pete… or he would have if the play hadn’t been called back on a holding penalty (this moment was 3rd place for ‘Oof of the Week’, for the record). They played on. Nearly the entire OT period was used. On what would likely be their final drive, Kyler Murray hit D’Andre Hopkins for a short gain. 3P was one point away, Hopkins just needed 10 yards or one more reception anywhere on the field… just ONE!
But it did not come.
Murray completed the Cardinals’ comeback against their tough division rival, but he did not make the completion 3 Pete needed for theirs. 3P has had some let-down losses this year, but you gotta think this one is the most… let-downiest… They enter their 2nd trip around the league with little margin for error. Unless their luck changes, they may start next year as simply ‘Pete’.
Team Grimm (5-2) def. When Does Hockey Start (2-5)
135.32 - 123.64
Live footage from Jared Grimm’s house on Sunday night:
Team Grimm evade the Tyler Lockett monster jam and find themselves in the 5 win club. James Robinson went off, and the rest of the team more-or-less hit their projections. A good showing that deserves the win, but that’s not what you’re here for.
Let’s talk about the WILD WR core this week. They ate their Wheaties. The three that started averaged 24 points. Two of them doubled their projection. Tyler Boyd even threw for 16 yards in addition to his excellent game.
AND YET…
Tyler Lockett broke 50 points and he did it from the WILD bench. He and Russell Wilson were absolutely in love on Sunday night. 15 receptions, 200 yards, 3TD’s add up to a league high 53 point performance. Lockett is now the 2nd ranked WR in the league despite already having his bye. Despite the sterling performances of the three WILD starters, if any one of them had been replaced by Lockett, the game would have been decided in their favor before Monday night and David Montgomery’s so-so showing. I’m not a mathematician (I’m a worm permaculturist, thanks for asking), but I believe the odds of winning when one of your players dongs out for 50 points is somewhere between 99% and 99.99999%. It’s safe to say that leaving Lockett on the bench constitutes a pretty big Oof. The only question is: Is it big enough to be...
Originally I thought this was going to be a pretty easy decision. There’s usually a couple instances a year where an injured player gets started by mistake, but for three to happen in the same week, on the same team, with a manager that is not perma-AFK? That’s special. I thought SHTS owner Zach Pauras had his second OOTW in the bag. Then the above-mentioned Lockett snuffing took place and suddenly there was a choice. A bench player going ham certainly isn’t unusual, it’s about as classic an Oof as it gets. But there’s a reason it’s classic. No matter how many times you see it happen to someone else, the schadenfreude is always palpable and delicious. So which is the greater Oof? Let’s break it down to find out:
It is said that the three phases of football are offense, defense, and special teams. In comparison, the three phases of an Oof of the Week are poor judgment, bad luck, and maximum consequences. Just like in football, you typically need two of these in your favor to win. Let’s go phase-by-phase.
Poor judgment: As covered in the recap section, WILD did end up getting great production from the WR’s they did start. Not 50 points worth of course, but under any other circumstance there’s not much to question there. Lockett is a good receiver, but he had been cold for the two weeks leading up to his bye so you can kinda understand leaving him out for the hotter hands. On the SHTS hand, if you know going into the weekend that 3 of your starters are listed as questionable or worse, you have to put a mental note to check-in at least once before noon on Sunday. You can set your alarm for 11:50 and still have enough time to shuffle starters or shoot from the Free Agency hip. All that is extra, however. Everyone knows that someone who prioritizes IRL interaction over fantasy football is clearly misguided. Adv. SHTS
Bad luck: This one is close. WILD has 4 A-level receivers and only 3 possible slots. 25% odds of missing the jackpot. Not great, not terrible. For SHTS, I don’t have numbers about the percent chance a questionable player ends up playing vs. sitting, but I gotta think luck is less of a factor with injury reports since they are, ya know, reports. You’re guaranteed 90 minutes before a game to know the status of your players. That makes SHTS situation preventable, and bad luck is, by definition, unpreventable. I know it sounds like I’m shitting on SHTS again, but there’s a certain peace that their situation has over WILD’s. Once the mistake is made, that’s it, it’s done. Whereas, WILD has to watch things play out while still having hope that things could still break in their favor. A strong Oof devours hope. Adv. WILD
Maximum Consequences: This one is much easier. SHTS ended up avoiding the century-dunk, but still lost by 97. It’s improbable that their three injured starters would have made up the difference. For WILD, Lockett on the bench was the difference between a win and a loss. That is as consequential as it gets for regular season fantasy football.
Additionally, these consequences come with a dose of irony, because all 3 Pete needed was one of those passes from Lockett to find DK Metcalf in order to win. It’s not like WILD was using them. It was the fantasy equivalent of throwing your leftovers in the garbage while making eye contact with a homeless person. Adv. WILD
Therefore, by 2-1 decision, Oof of the Week goes to Dan Bell’s When Does Hockey Start for the benching of Tyler Lockett.
WEEK 8 MATCHUPS
We have completed our first trip around the league. It’s time for the Week 1 rematches:
3 Pete (2-5) vs. Hostert With The Mostert (4-3)
When Does Hockey Start (2-5) vs. Too Many Cooks (5-2)
Outdated Sheets (3-4) vs. Team Grimm (5-2)
Respect The Specks (2-5) vs. Knobby Packers (5-2)
League News
Keep an eye out on the discord this week for contingency payout proposals. In other words, if the season ends early, to what degree will the results be honored. Now is probably the fairest time to do them since we’re far enough into the season to see the end and no team is yet eliminated. Again, since the league was founded on the understanding that fees would be returned if the season ended early, any changes would require unanimous approval. If you have suggestions for how this should be done, shoot me a DM.
Best of luck in Week 8!
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